Showing posts with label India. Show all posts
Showing posts with label India. Show all posts

Thursday, July 29, 2021

Who Crash Landed Indian Aviation

 




The Crash of Indian Aviation Sector

·       East West Airline

First Private Sector Airline

Who Killed Takeeuddin Abdul Waheed – The owner of East West Airline – Is this case of Corporate Rivalry.

Wahid was the managing director of East-West Airlines, the first private scheduled airline to begin service after liberalization. Wahid hailed from Edava near Varkala in Thiruvananthapuram district. He was killed in Mumbai when he was about to go home after a day at work.

East-West Airlines, which commenced services in 1992, shut down in 1996 after his murder.

 




Air Deccan

 

In the summer of 2005, retired army officer-turned-businessman GR Gopinath announced that he would enable Indians to fly at one rupee or less than a cent.

It was an incredulous sales pitch from the founder of the country's first budget airline.

Air Deccan, his then two-year-old no-frills airline modelled on European budget carriers like EasyJet and Ryanair, had already made flying affordable to millions of Indians. Capt Gopinath's tickets cost half of what competitors charged.

Now his airline introduced "dynamic pricing" where a small number of "early bird" customers could travel at a rupee. Latecomers would pay a higher ticket price, which would still be substantially lower than competitors. Not surprisingly, booking counters were overrun with customers, many of them first-time fliers. Critics howled such pricing methods would wreck the industry.

"The one-rupee ticket fired the imagination of the people and quickly became a buzzword," wrote Capt Gopinath in his memoir. He believed his airline had not "only broken the price barrier, but India's caste and class barrier to flying"

 


 

Jet and sahara

In the dynamic world of Indian aviation, failure of the $500-million plan to merge Jet Airways with Air Sahara has introduced a series of new twists and turns.

Explained: The rise and fall of private airlines

The suspension of operations at Jet Airways — at one time India’s largest private airline —  follows the troubles at Kingfisher, Air Deccan, and Sahara. A short history of hope and distress in a highly competitive market over the last 30 years.

Policy changes came in the 1990s — and liberalization and economic reforms gave the private aviation industry new wings of hope.

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The beginnings

Founder promoter Naresh Goyal’s Jet Airways was one of the first private airlines in newly liberalised India. In 1993

Start-stop-start

Besides repealing The Air Corporation Act, the government announced an Open Skies policy in 1992, liberalising rules and regulations to open up the commercial aviation market. This led to the birth, over the next decade or so, of private sector players including ModiLuft, Damania Airways, Air Sahara, and East-West Airlines. Most of these new players, however, folded up soon or were merged — Jet Airways in contrast, stood out as an efficient private sector operator, gaining market share with each passing year.

 East-West

ModiLuft and East-West ceased operations in 1996. Air Sahara, which started operations in 1993 as Sahara Airlines, was acquired by Jet in 2007 — a business move that many analysts argue marked the beginning of the company’s troubles.

ModiLuft, which had an excellent record for three years until it shut down in 1996, was later acquired by Ajay Singh, who launched it as SpiceJet in 2005 along with NRI businessman Bhulo Kansagra. As SpiceJet faced difficulties, Kansagra sold his stake to US distress investor Wilbur Ross in 2008, who sold it to Sun Group’s Kalanithi Maran a couple of years later. The airline was teetering on the verge of closure when it was again acquired by Ajay Singh in 2015, who turned it profitable.

Boom and bust

The real expansion of the private airlines, and the number of domestic flyers in India, started in the 2000s. In 2003, Captain G R Gopinath started the country’s first low-cost carrier Air Deccan, which was followed by the launch of SpiceJet, IndiGo and GoAir. All these carriers followed the model of no-frills, cheaper tickets, and higher passenger load factors.

 Damania airlines

The LCC (low-cost carrier) model revolutionized the Indian aviation sector, pushing the country’s annual passenger growth rate to double digits. Alongside the LCCs, Kingfisher Airlines started operations in 2005, pitching itself in the middle of a no-frills and a full-service carrier. These new airlines posed a formidable challenge to Jet Airways, which had so far operated largely in a duopoly with state-owned carriers Air India and Indian Airlines (which were merged in 2011).




But the situation changed soon.

Air Deccan faced extreme financial difficulties and was bought by Kingfisher in 2007. However, Kingfisher itself went belly-up in 2012, while SpiceJet faced intermittent headwinds. Jet, which had a 44% share of the domestic passenger market in 2003-04, steadily lost ground — in February this year, the deeply troubled airline had only 10% of the domestic market share, fourth behind IndiGo (43.4%), SpiceJet (13.7%) and Air India (domestic, 12.8%), according to government data. In all these years, IndiGo stood out as the only carrier that improved its market share and financial performance.

In December 2004, the government announced a major policy change, allowing Indian scheduled carriers with a minimum five years’ continuous operations and a minimum of 20 aircraft (the so called 5/20 rule) to fly international routes. Jet was the key beneficiary of this policy change. In 2016, the government scrapped the 5/20 rule and replaced it with 0/20, enabling SpiceJet, IndiGo and GoAir to launch international flights in the following years.

TATA GROUP

challenges The Tata Group faced in getting approvals to start their own airline company in the 1990s. The regulatory struggle which began during the regime of Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao continued during the regime of Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda. Innumerable bureaucratic hurdles continued to surface one after the other. In the light of the current scenario of India's civil aviation industry - where Jet Airways has closed its operations, Air India is up for sale, and legal agencies are exploring the inconsistencies that caused the downfall of India's state carrier, this story becomes even more interesting and topical. It tells us how India as a nation would have benefited if the governments of those decades had prioritized citizen well-being over political expedience in their decision making.

When Prime Minister Deve Gowda attended the World Economic Forum at Davos with Finance Minister P. Chidambaram in 1996-97, among other questions, they were asked about the ‘stop-go-stop’ status of the Tata-Singapore Airlines (SIA) venture. Their answer was that it was ‘being considered’. It would have been a diplomatic faux-pas to say anything else at a venue that was meant to project India as an attractive destination for foreign investments. 

 

In the Union Cabinet Meeting held in April 1997, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram, Industry Minister Murasoli Maran and Foreign Minister Inder Kumar Gujral endorsed the clearance of the Tata-SIA proposal. However, Civil Aviation Minister Ibrahim had supposedly brought with him papers from four unions belonging to Indian Airlines, which threatened to go on strike if the Tata Airlines proposal was accepted. He contended that workers’ interests must be protected. The Prime Minister conceded to this concern and laid the proposal to rest.

Later that month, a formal rejection letter was sent to the Tata Group citing inconsistencies in the proposal with the civil aviation policy.

There were strong mutterings in the media that the aviation minister had altered the aviation policy at Naresh Goyal’s behest to upset Tatas’ aviation dreams. M.K. Kaw, civil aviation secretary under Minister Ibrahim, acknowledged this in his autobiography (An Outsider Everywhere),

‘The minister did not clear the file, despite several attempts on my part. The history of civil aviation in this country would have taken a different trajectory if Tata-SIA had been allowed to float an airline.’ 

A bumpy ride

In 1990s, Air India’s market share steadily declined, and losses mounted. Between 1995 and 1997, it reported consolidated losses of ₹671 crores. When the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led Government came to power in 1998, it initiated a major disinvestment programme under Minister Arun Shourie. In 2001, a decision on divesting 40% stake in Air India was taken. Given its long and rich experience, the Tata Group was specifically encouraged to participate in the process. The national carrier was an attractive investment proposition because of its lucrative slots at key Indian and international airports, flying rights to global destinations, its fleet size and market share. Tatas were interested in exploring the opportunity and collaborated with SIA to study the feasibility. Its findings revealed that robust middle level managers at Air India would be an asset in turning around the enterprise. SIA and Tata Sons offered to take 20% stake each in Air India. 

When their joint proposal emerged as sole bidders, it was almost a done deal. Yet, once again, there was an uproar. Virulent attacks by rival airline lobbyists and opposition from labour unions marred the atmosphere. Discomforted by these developments, Singapore Airlines withdrew its participation. It offered to assist the Tatas as technical advisors without any equity stake. That too cut no ice with decision makers. Tatas entry into the airline sector was successfully stonewalled one more time. [i]

 

 I am therefore taking the decision to withdraw our application.’ A decade later, in 2010, while addressing the Tenth Foundation Day of Uttarakhand at Dehradun, he shared a conversation he had with a fellow industrialist during the days when Tatas had applied for the airline. ‘You are stupid people. The Minister was asking for ₹15-crore. Why didn’t you pay the money?’ the industrialist chided Mr Tata.

‘I did not want to go to bed knowing well that I set up an airline by paying ₹15-crore as a bribe,’ was Mr Tata’s reply.

He regretted that despite being a pioneer in Indian aviation, Tata Group faced enormous problems in gaining approvals for a domestic airline. ‘We approached three Prime Ministers. But an individual thwarted our efforts to form the airlines,’ he admitted in public. He did not name the individual, though the grapevine pointed the needle to Jet Chairman Goyal. On another occasion he confessed, ‘It is not that we were thwarted that bothers me, but that vested interests combined to deny the country the benefit of a world-class competitive airline.’  

A new Sunrise

As for Air India, it had succeeded in accumulating losses of ₹50,000 crores and a debt of ₹55,000 crores by March 2018, a disdainful drain on the honest taxpayers’ money that could have been invested in vital social sector schemes. Besides the huge debt, some of the key problems plaguing the airline included routing and network issues, lack of decisive leadership, managerial complications, and internal incompatibility between the merged airlines. In his autobiographical account, M.K. Kaw regretted that the history of civil aviation in India had been a story of shameless exploitation and ruthless corruption. He called it ‘a fascinating saga of benami ownership of airlines, demands for bribes, destruction of rival airlines one-by-one, unwarranted purchase of aircraft, mismanagement of bureaucrats and politicians, free jaunts on inaugural flights, subsidized travel for many categories of travelers, VVIP flights, Haj flights and so on.’

By early 2019, Jet Airways faced operational closure; many observers calling it Karma coming a full circle. India’s characteristic Maharaja was on sale, yet no one wanted to acquire the once iconic brand that symbolized world-class air travel. Interestingly, Vistara was the only commercially successful full-service airline operating in India’s civil aviation space…  

Notes:

 

Thursday, May 14, 2020

Economic Cost of Hate

Economic Cost of Hate

India has seen gradual increase of hate against its Muslim Minority. This gradual increase of last 6 years has suddenly spiked in last 8 months, which is noticed by global human rights groups and Governments.

The countries and international organizations has started discussions and so are governments. This discussion has now coming to the point it will start damaging India’s Economy and will have serious implications.

US Congress has already issued statement and so is USCIRF and Congress Members, and Bernie Sanders has raised serious questions on India’s handling of Racism, Hate and Violence against its minorities.



UK Parliament has already discussed the matter.

EU Parliament will take up the issue once opened. It has 3 resolutions on the matter.  

OIC – Organization of Islamic Cooperation is world’s second biggest group of countries has already issued statements and requested government of India, to protect the life and properties of Muslims.

GCC – Gulf Cooperative Council is world’s smallest but richest group with substantial exposure and relations with India and with very good say across the worlds, is started serious talking about Islamophobia and Hate in India. This will have serious economic impact.

US, Europe and UK, number of Muslim countries has echoed their concern for the Hate Crime and Islamophobia in India.

 


Notably among them are Turkey, Iran, Malaysia, Indonesia has come out with their statements.

The real question is How is the cost or economic impact of all this hate mongering.




I will start with GCC.

1.      GCC hosts 9 million Indian – This number can vary between 9 million and 12 million depending upon how you view or calculate.

2.      The total of 79 billion USD, 55 Billion comes from GCC countries or 70%, more importantly India is single largest recipient of foreign remittances.

Among countries, the top remittance recipients were India with $79 billion, followed by China ($67 billion), Mexico ($36 billion), the Philippines ($34 billion), and Egypt ($29 billion). World Bank

3.      More than 80% Indian working in GCC are low wage earners or labor which are easy to replace.

4.      India’s Export – Fresh Vegetables and Meat

5.      GCC is single biggest market for Fresh Vegetables, and Fruits, Agriculture Products.

6.      GCC is single biggest market for Fresh Meat Exports – Caracas – Goat and Sheep

7.      GCC is single biggest market for Beef Exports.

8.      GCC is single biggest trading partner for Agro Commodities.

GCC countries account for 15 percent of India’s total import and 12 percent of the country’s total export basket in value terms.

Among the GCC countries, UAE accounted for the major chunk of India’s exports and imports with $30.08 billion and $29.77 billion respectively in FY19.

 

This is despite a negative growth in both imports and exports of gems and jewelry, a major item in the product basket between India and UAE.  India’s imports of gems and jewelry from UAE have seen a decline of 13 percent, while its exports of these products to UAE have fallen by 3 percent in FY19 over the previous fiscal.

UAE accounts for 9 percent of India’s total export basket and 5.80 percent of India’s import basket by value.

UAE is the major destination for India’s jewelry exports, accounting for about 80 percent of India’s exports.




Energy, Expatriates and Economy

Indian National make up the Gulf states’ largest expatriate community, with an estimated 9.6 million Indian nationals living and working in the region; especially in Saudi Arabia (2.8 million) and the UAE (2.6 million.

The GCC is India’s largest regional-bloc trading partner, which accounted for $104 billion of trade in 2017–18, nearly a 7 per cent increase from $97 billion the previous year. This is higher than both India–ASEAN trade ($81 billion) and India–EU trade ($102 billion) in 2017-18. Two of India’s top five trading partners, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are from the Gulf. The GCC also provided over $55 billion in foreign-exchange remittances from Indian expatriates in 2017, accounting for over 70 per cent of India’s total.

The total bilateral trade between the GCC and India was estimated at US$121.34 billion ($203 billion) in 2018-19. The UAE is estimated to be India’s third-largest partner with trade in 2018-19 estimated at nearly US$60 billion ($100 billion), while Saudi Arabia is India’s fourth-largest trading partner, with trade in 2018-19 estimated at over US$34billion ($57 billion).

They aim to increase bilateral trade by 60 per cent over the next five years and have set a target of $75 billion for UAE investments into India’s infrastructure development, spanning ports, airports, highways and construction, as well as petrochemical projects.


India expected to attract large-scale investment from the GCC to India, following the recent announcement of the development of a $44 billion oil refinery to be built by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), Saudi Aramco and Indian counterparts.
The announcement comes a few months after Emirates Group announced a $4.23 billion (INR300 billion) aircraft maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) project in Andhra Pradesh in February this year.
Aramco is also in talks with Reliance Industries Limited  to purchase a 20 per cent stake in its oil to chemical business, which is estimated at US$75 billion ($125.5 billion).



The GCC has also invested in developing India’s energy infrastructure. In 2019, the Saudi Ambassador to India stated that Riyadh wished to invest US$100 billion ($166 billion) in India

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in India increased to $61.96 billion in 2017-18, according to Indian Government’s Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP). Total FDI reached $ 61.96 billion in the last four years, it said.

India: An investment gateway

Yusuffali predicts that an investment to the tune of $150 billion will flow into retail, aviation, tourism and manufacturing sectors from Gulf countries.

This will have a mutual benefit for both the countries as India faces 30 per cent wastage in the Indian farm sector due to bottlenecks in storage, packaging and transportation, and investment by Saudi Arabia would benefit both the countries.

 

 

 

 


Why GCC Matters

And with an average GDP per capita of US $ 61,559 in terms of purchasing parity, most GCC nation rank in worlds top ten richest countries.

 

Indonesia and Malaysia account for 85% of the world's palm oil output while India is the biggest buyer of edible oil.

Indonesian crude palm oil has sold at a premium to Malaysian oil since India this month placed curbs on imports of refined palm oil.
The trade ministers of India and Indonesia, which want to more than double their bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2025, met in Davos on Thursday and agreed to fast-forward trade between them, one of the informed sources
An Indian government document, reviewed by Reuters, said that Indonesia had "informally agreed" to double the annual quota for Indian bovine meat exports to 200,000 tonnes.
Indian-Indonesian trade was worth $21.2 billion in the  2019.

Indonesia imported 94,500 tonnes of Indian buffalo meat worth $323 million in the 2018/19 fiscal year. It is the third biggest buyer of Indian buffalo meat after Vietnam and Malaysia.

India’s Tourism Sector

The Foreign Tourist Arrivals in India is small compared to global standards. The lack of enough and quality infrastructure is one reason, the culture and social environment is second factor.

The arrivals are divided as Foreign and NRI, we will discuss only Foreign Arrivals.

The single largest arrival is Bangladesh Nationals. Then come US and Europe. The Bangladesh alone constitute more than 20% of total arrivals, USA and Europe together constitute another 25%.  The remaining 55% is scattered over countries. North Africa, GCC and Malaysia together is above 10%. Other Muslim Countries has another 3% arrivals in India.

Tourism is one of very important employment sector for India. The present environment of hate will directly affect sentiments of Tourist and their arrivals. Not only the Muslims but all arrivals will be affected.

We see more than 50% reduction in Tourist arrivals from Muslim World to India. The NRI arrival will also be heavily affected because of Job loss.

The arrivals from USA and Europe will be affected by 15%, as sentiments go negative. This will affect India’s direct foreign currency income and employment.


 

Services Sector – India’s services sector is more dependent on USA and Europe. IT, ITES are mostly catered to developed world. In last few years, there is substantial growth and Opportunities are generated from GCC. This growth is steady and remain double the average growth of India’s services sector exports. This nascent sector will face challenge to survive in GCC, North Africa and Malaysia, Indonesia.

The Effect of Hate on FDI and PPP and other projects

As Result of Increase of Hate in India, India will see substantial losses in terms of financial loss. Remittance will be down by 30% or 17 Billion Dollar, direct commercial loss or loss of business will be 55 billion and overall Indian economy will be take hit of 1.5 percent.

 

The sentiment in GCC particularly and worldwide in general will be negatively impacted. The investors look for safety of their amount and social conditioning. Peace is most important to drive growth anywhere in the world. Without peace and harmony, it is impossible to find growth and development. Hate will not only drag down the growth of particular community but it will have drag down effect on everyone. These negative sentiments will persist for the long time. GCC human rights activist and global Human Rights activist particularly in EU and USA will have substantial impact on FDI in India.

 

Data Source - 

India Tourism Statistics 2019 Ministry of Tourism Government of India

Annual Report 2018 -2019 Department of Commerce Government of India

GCC Stat

World Bank Remittances Report

IMF Economic Review

Venture Art Economic Projections

 


Thursday, August 20, 2015

Indian on Innovation

Three Indian companies among world's most innovative firms: Forbes

NEW YORK: Hindustan Unilever, Tata Consultancy ServicesBSE -1.47 % (TCS) and Sun Pharma Industries are the three Indian companies that have been named among the world's 100 most innovative companies by Forbes in a list that has been topped by Tesla Motors. 

 Fast moving consumer goods company Hindustan UnileverBSE -0.25 % has been ranked 41 on the list, followed by TCS at rank 64 and Sun Pharma at rank 71 in the Forbes list of 'The World's Most Innovative Companies'. 

 The list has been topped by Elon Musk's California-Based Tesla Motors which has a market capitalization of USD 25.5 billion. Musk has inherited (former Apple CEO) "Steve Jobs' mantle as the cult favorite CEO. And his electric car company has grabbed Apple's creative crown," it said. 

 On Hindustan Unilever, Forbes said the company had over 35 brands spanning 20 distinct categories. 

 India's largest IT company TCS, with a market cap of USD 80.3 billion, appears on the list for the eighth time. The company took a major step toward bolstering its digital services when last month it announced a training program in digital technologies for a third of its workforce. 

 In the past year it crossed the milestone of employing 100,000 women, meaning that one out of three employees is now a woman, Forbes said. 

 Sun Pharma had a market cap USD 39 billion and India's largest drugs company appears on the list for the fourth straight time. Billionaire Dilip Shanghvi - who owns more than half the company - pipped Mukesh Ambani earlier this year to become the richest man in India.

Stay Strong Startup


 The list also includes software company salesforce.com on the second spot, followed by Amazon (8), Hermes International (22), Netflix (27), MasterCard (36), Starbucks (45), Adobe (74), Coco Cola (81) and Cognizant (96). 

 Forbes said companies are ranked by their innovation premium: the difference between their market capitalisation and a net present value of cash flows from existing businesses. 

 To be included in the list, firms need seven years of public financial data and USD 10 billion in market cap. 

 Forbes said only those industries are included that are known to invest in innovation.

Citation - With Thanks from Economic Times http://goo.gl/SjFyh4